This brief and methodological note have updated the previous analysis of the long-term effects of COVID-19 on the future of food security. To determine updated impacts, the most recent insights on COVID-19, specifically the effects the pandemic has had on economic growth and recovery, were used to quantify development progress on food security to 2040 in three scenarios:

• A COVID-19 Current Path scenario projecting development progress in a world with COVID-19, using the most recent data and insights on COVID-19 effects on economic growth, inequality, education losses, and government debt.
• A more pessimistic COVID-19 Unequal Paths scenario projecting development progress in a world with COVID-19, with long-term worsening effects of COVID-19 primarily falling to low- and middle-income countries.
• A counterfactual No-COVID scenario, projecting development progress in a world without impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. This scenario uses 2019 economic growth rate forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and does not account for COVID-19 school closures and associated learning losses. This scenario serves as the baseline against which to assess the effects of COVID-19.